Quarterly International Carbon Update: Q1 2025

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) form the foundation of the Paris Agreement, establishing targets that Parties promise to implement and be measured against as they work towards global goals to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, limit temperature rise, and build resilience to climate impacts.

In this article, we’ll be talking about 19 Parties that submitted new NDCs in late 2024 and early 2025. More specifically, we'll be taking a closer look at each country/nation’s self-perception of fairness in terms of its contribution and ambition when weighed against the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).

NDC registry is publicly accessible

NDCs are communicated by each Party through the respective Party national focal point for climate change. These documents are submitted to the United Nations (UN), and then recorded in a public registry maintained by the UN secretariat.

Details included in an NDC

NDCs detail national circumstances, institutional arrangements, specific policies and measures such as renewable energy initiatives, energy efficiency improvements, adaptation strategies, and engagement with stakeholders, including local communities, Indigenous peoples, and the private sector. Some NDCs also discuss financial needs, technology transfer, and capacity building required for implementation, alongside considerations of fairness, ambition, and alignment with long-term goals like achieving net-zero emissions.

Next generation NDCs are more ambitious

Countries are required to put forward new NDCs every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition, as recent research shows that climate impacts are already happening faster and with more severe consequences than previously thought. There is an increasingly urgent need to slash emissions, scale up adaptation efforts, and significantly increase investment in climate action through 2035.

Perception of fairness in terms of contribution

Attitudes and perceptions about what is fair are highly influenced by reference points. People make value judgements about what they consider fair at least partly on a comparison of the situation of others, or a situation that occurred in the past.

However, it may also be that people in countries or regions use different points of comparison. This could explain why, even though different countries/nations have undergone changes in different directions, populist disaffection is on the rise everywhere. People don’t just care about 'distributive justice' – the share of resources or opportunities they get – but also how the decision was taken, i.e. 'procedural justice'.

Team MAGA claims the Paris Agreement unfairly restricts its right to drill, baby, drill

The second Donald Trump presidency is one of the loudest and most aggressive anti-climate administrations in history. It has emboldened climate crisis deniers and other key figures involved with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement to take advantage of the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (for a second time) in order to push a global fossil fuel agenda. 

The stated policy behind the actions in this executive order, published by the White House on 20 January 2025, was to “put the interests of the United States and the American people first”, ensuring international environmental agreements do not unduly or unfairly burden the American economy.

In terms of fairness, however, to those of us in the rest of the world, it seems grossly unjust that the US – the world's second-biggest climate polluter after China (together, these two countries represent more than 37% of total global GHG emissions) – isn’t prepared to play its part in helping to get climate change under control. Sure, there are almost 200 other countries/nations who remain committed to fighting the good fight, but the world needs significant action from the biggest emitters to make a real difference, and fast.

North, Central, & South America (AMER)

Below is a self-perception of fairness summary from each country/nation in the AMER region that has submitted a new NDC, when measuring its own contribution and ambition against the principle of CBDR-RC.

Brazil

Brazil states that justice considerations form the cornerstone of its NDC, viewed from the perspectives of climate justice and just transitions. Brazil emphasises the principle of CBDR-RC, enshrined in several international agreements. The country believes its commitment to mitigating climate change goes far beyond what could be expected based on its historical responsibility for global temperature rise, arguing that the ambition, scale, and scope of its efforts are in line with, if not surpassing, those of developed countries most historically responsible. Brazil considers its NDC to reflect its highest possible ambition in alignment with the principles of equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, while ensuring consistency with national capabilities and development needs. Brazil also notes that the ambition of its NDC is much higher than what would correspond to its socio-economic capacity and marginal relative responsibility for the increase in global average temperature. Furthermore, Brazil highlights the importance of the global response to climate change contributing to reducing inequalities within and among countries.

Canada

Canada is committed to doing its part to fight global climate change, with its emissions decreasing while the economy continues to grow. Canada's 2035 target represents further ambition beyond its 2030 target and aligns with its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. The development of Canada's NDC involved consultations with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, and the Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB), with fairness being a key consideration. The NZAB's advice included considerations of Canada's fair share of emissions reductions and equity. Canada acknowledges the unique challenges it faces due to its geography, climate, and resource-based economy, including the significant economic activity from hard-to-decarbonise sectors. The government is also focused on ensuring a just transition that supports workers and communities, recognising that the transition to net-zero presents some affordability risks, particularly for low-income households and vulnerable groups. Canada passed the Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act to support the creation of sustainable jobs and advance equity and inclusion. The importance of policy design being equitable, fair, affordable, and achievable for all jurisdictions and citizens is also highlighted.

Cuba

Cuba considers its NDC to be just and ambitious in light of its national circumstances, reflecting the highest possible ambition while considering the principle of CBDR-RC. However, Cuba has conditioned the implementation of part of its ambitious emission reduction goals on receiving support from developed countries, which has not been received for its previous NDC. Cuba emphasises that materialising the commitments of developing countries requires financial resources, technology transfer, and capacity building from developed countries.

Ecuador

Ecuador considers its second NDC to be just and ambitious in light of its national circumstances. While recognising its shared responsibility in combating climate change under the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, Ecuador is also aware of its vulnerability to climate impacts. Ecuador emphasises that climate ambition goes beyond just increasing emission reduction commitments and also includes empowerment, inclusivity, just transition, sustainable development, clarity, and transparency. The NDC was built through a participatory process involving diverse actors, aiming to reflect the priorities and needs of all Ecuadorians and considering the principles of climate justice. Ecuador acknowledges the historical responsibilities of developed countries and the need for support for developing nations. Equity is considered a fundamental principle, with efforts to ensure that the benefits of climate actions are distributed fairly, prioritising vulnerable groups such as Indigenous Peoples, Afro-Ecuadorian communities, and rural women. Inter-generational justice is also recognised.

Saint Lucia

Saint Lucia believes its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances, despite the small scale of its emissions. The government is steadfast in its conviction that global mitigation efforts should focus on stabilising global GHG emissions at levels that limit global average temperature increase to well below 1.5°C. Saint Lucia is pursuing an aggressive plan to reduce emissions in key sectors and has enhanced the ambition and scope of its NDC compared to previous ones. Fairness is reflected in the aim to mainstream Gender Equality, Disability, and Social Inclusion (GEDSI) in climate action, ensuring that climate plans address the needs of these groups and promote gender equality and social inclusion.

United States (US)

The US considers its NDC to be aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as encouraged by the first Global Stocktake. The target falls within the range of US-specific pathways to global 1.5°C warming. The NDC development process involved consultation with a range of stakeholders, including environmental justice organisations, reflecting a consideration of fairness and equity. The US emphasises the importance of centering investment in communities that have historically been left behind, viewing this as crucial for economic growth and achieving the NDC. While the document doesn't explicitly detail the application of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities in the same way some other nations do, the focus on environmental justice and prioritising investments in disadvantaged communities suggests an internal consideration of equitable burden sharing within its national context.

Uruguay

Uruguay considers its NDC to be just and ambitious in light of its national circumstances. Uruguay highlights its small contribution to GHG emissions, accounting for only 0.05% of net global emissions in 2022. The country emphasises that the equitable design and application of its NDC are fundamental to ensuring that climate policies are fair, inclusive, and effective, with the burden of the low-carbon transition distributed justly across different sectors and societal groups. Uruguay also points out its favourable position regarding the low magnitude of its historical and current contribution to global GHG emissions. The NDC aims to represent the highest possible ambition while also progressing beyond previous commitments.

Europe, Middle East, & Africa (EMEA)

Below is a self-perception of fairness summary from each country/nation in the EMEA region that has submitted a new NDC, when measuring its own contribution and ambition against the principle of CBDR-RC.

Andorra

Andorra states that its NDC 3.0 strengthens its leadership in climate transparency and ambition. Despite its minimal contribution to global emissions, Andorra considers its NDC to be a reinforcement of its commitment to global climate action. By being the first country to complete the review process of its first Biennial Transparency Report, Andorra believes it can demand greater climate ambition from other Parties with higher mitigation potential. Andorra's NDC for 2035, including a 63% reduction of emissions from its peak in 2005, is described as an even more ambitious goal. Conscious of its minimal contribution to global emissions, Andorra has prioritised being exemplary in fulfilling its reporting obligations to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This leadership in transparency is seen as reinforcing its position to demand greater efforts from Parties with a larger reduction capacity and global impact, ensuring more ambitious and equitable international climate action. Andorra considers its NDC to reflect the maximum level of ambition that the country can achieve, with an absolute economy-wide emissions reduction target covering all GHGs, sectors, and categories. This represents a significant progression from previous commitments and ensures alignment with its national capacities, development priorities, and the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C. Andorra considers its NDC for 2035 to be aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as established in the first Global Stocktake and consistent with the specific trajectories identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. In line with the principles of equity and shared responsibilities, Andorra believes its commitment to an economy-wide absolute reduction target demonstrates fairness and ambition given its national circumstances.

Montenegro

Montenegro considers its updated NDC with targets of at least 55% and 60% net reduction by 2030 and 2035 compared to 1990 to be both ambitious and fair. This assessment takes into account the country's specific national circumstances and emission reduction potential, as well as the efforts made to date. Montenegro highlights that its NDC aims to secure a significant reduction in GHG emissions while allowing a feasible pathway for long-term decarbonisation and satisfying the country's need for economic development. They also note that their targets are consistent with the IPCC's recommendation for global emissions to fall by about 43% below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C, especially considering Montenegro has already reduced net GHG emissions to 71.6% below 1990 levels in 2022. Furthermore, Montenegro emphasises that this NDC represents a progression of ambition compared to its previous NDC. As a developing country highly vulnerable to climate change effects, with national GHG emissions representing only 0.002% of global emissions and low net per capita emissions, Montenegro believes its commitment to decouple GHG emissions from economic growth and embark on a low-emission development pathway demonstrates fairness. The update of the NDC from a -35% target (excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry aka LULUCF) to -55% (including LULUCF) by 2030 and -60% by 2035 is considered ambitious and fair, requiring substantial investments, mechanisms, and awareness raising for a just transition. Montenegro states that its updated NDC target represents a progression beyond the current NDC and reflects the highest possible ambition under consideration of national circumstances. As a developing country, Montenegro has enhanced its NDC with an economy-wide net and absolute emission reduction, complying with the relevant provisions.

Switzerland

Switzerland considers its second NDC (2031-2035) to be fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances. It emphasises the importance of the global community sharing the required efforts to combat climate change in a fair and equitable manner, rooted in the best available science. Switzerland believes it is in the interest of all Parties to come forward with their highest possible ambition and recognises that equity and fairness considerations are multi-faceted, evolving with a country's circumstances. Switzerland's understanding of a fair share includes considering responsibility for cumulative emissions (past, present, and future), total emissions (territorial and consumption-based), and per capita emissions, based on the polluter pays principle. As a developed country, Switzerland believes it should demonstrate leadership with urgent emission reductions supporting a 1.5°C pathway. Switzerland's second NDC reflects a progression beyond its first NDC in several areas, including a strengthened emission reduction objective of at least 65% by 2035 compared to 1990 (compared to at least 50% by 2030 in the first NDC). It also includes increased domestic emission reductions and a strengthened measures and legislative framework, including a long-term net-zero target and a net-negative pathway in domestic law.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE states that its emissions reduction target set out in its NDC is based on the principles of CBDR-RC and equity. As a young nation accounting for around 0.3% of global cumulative CO2 emissions, still undergoing significant societal and economic transformation, the UAE believes its efforts to enhance mitigation and adaptation policies domestically and internationally demonstrate fairness. The UAE's emissions reduction from its 2019 baseline balances ambition with fairness, ensuring its contributions are significant but achievable given its national circumstances. Equity in climate targets ensures that countries with higher capacities and lower historical emissions, like the UAE, have targets reflecting their ability to act without compromising their development needs. The UAE’s assessment of fair share emphasises maximising ambition in national efforts, protecting people and livelihoods, and contributing to global efforts in other developing countries. The UAE considers its enhanced ambition in NDC 3.0, informed by the Global Stocktake and the UAE Consensus, as demonstrating its determination to lead by example in accelerating climate actions to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Although accounting for a small percentage of global cumulative emissions, the UAE highlights its significant ambition in aiming for a 47% reduction compared to its 2019 baseline. Its NDC is described as compliant with Article 4, paragraph 3 of the Paris Agreement, showcasing an enhanced GHG target compared to previous submissions. The UAE emphasises its commitment to supporting global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach, building on its progression from sector-specific targets to economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets.

United Kingdom (UK)

The UK considers its 2035 NDC to be a fair and ambitious contribution to global action on climate change. The target of at least an 81% reduction in total net GHG emissions and removals in 2035 compared to the base year is seen as consistent with many cost-effective 1.5°C pathway estimates and was broadly welcomed. In determining the target level, the UK took into account a range of factors including the temperature goal and principle of equity in the Paris Agreement, the latest science, the Global Stocktake, domestic decarbonisation potential, its legally binding net-zero commitment, and advice from the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The UK states its NDC target was determined taking account of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, the Global Stocktake, and the principles of equity and CBDR-RC, in the light of different national circumstances. Furthermore, the NDC is on the trajectory to the UK's legally binding net-zero emissions target by 2050. The UK highlights that its NDC is an economy-wide absolute emissions reduction target, aligning with the Paris Agreement.

Zambia

Zambia considers its provisional NDC 3.0 as fair and ambitious enough to contribute to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy by 2030 in accordance with its national circumstances and its desire to become a low-carbon and climate-resilient prosperous middle-income country by 2030. As a low contributor to global GHG emissions, Zambia states that in developing its NDC, it considered the general principles of the Convention and the Paris Agreement, especially those related to CBDR-RC and equitable access to atmospheric space. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), Zambia has volunteered to commit to reducing emissions unconditionally by 25% and conditionally by 47%, demonstrating a commitment that includes utilising resources from domestic budgetary allocations. Zambia's updated and revised NDC is seen as representing a progression beyond its previously communicated NDC by broadening the scope of sectors. While acknowledging its status as an LDC which could have prepared a communication on strategy, plan, and actions for low GHG emissions development, Zambia opted for a full-fledged NDC as a demonstration of its ambitious efforts to contribute to global efforts.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's updated target is described as representing a fair and ambitious contribution. Despite being highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and prioritising climate resilience, Zimbabwe states its commitment to ensuring a fair contribution to the Paris Agreement by demonstrating enhanced ambition through an expansion of its mitigation contribution. The increase in mitigation measures from 17 in NDC2.0 to 27 in NDC3.0, resulting in a 35% increase in mitigation potential for 2030, is highlighted as a demonstration of raised ambition.

Asia & Pacific (APAC)

Below is a self-perception of fairness summary from each country/nation in the APAC region that has submitted a new NDC, when measuring its own contribution and ambition against the principle of CBDR-RC.

Japan

Japan considers its NDC to be fair and ambitious as it aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 60% in fiscal year (FY) 2035 and by 73% in FY 2040 from FY 2013 levels. These targets are described as aligned with the global 1.5°C goal and on a straight pathway towards achieving net zero by 2050. Japan emphasises the transparency and concrete nature of its target, with clear breakdowns by gases and sectors, suggesting this contributes to improving transparency, ensuring fairness, and enabling effective reviews globally. As a country that supports manufacturing worldwide, Japan aims to take a leadership role in global net-zero efforts by demonstrating steady progress with an ambitious yet realistic approach. Japan's NDC is an economy-wide absolute emission reduction target.

Maldives

The Maldives considers its NDC to be both fair and ambitious given its national circumstances. Despite contributing only 0.004% to global GHG emissions, the country is disproportionately affected by climate change impacts. The Maldives has set a conditional target for a reduction of 1.52 MtCO2e (million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2035, contingent on receiving adequate international support in the form of finance, technology, and capacity building. This target could become more ambitious with increased support. The NDC is grounded in the principle of CBDR-RC, recognising its negligible contribution to global emissions while being severely impacted. The target set in this NDC is higher than the one submitted in 2020, representing a progression in ambition.

New Zealand

New Zealand considers its second NDC to be fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances. These circumstances include high agricultural emissions, a growing population, already high levels of renewable electricity generation, and the considerable social, cultural, and economic costs associated with gross emissions reductions as a small, export-exposed economy with substantial carbon sequestration from forestry. The NDC, which aims to reduce net GHG emissions to 51–55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035, is New Zealand’s fourth international mitigation target, each progressively stronger. This target represents a progression beyond previous efforts in terms of headline number and emissions impact, and a reduction from business-as-usual emissions, representing their highest possible ambition given their national circumstances and capabilities. Fairness considerations involved looking at factors like national circumstances, cost of effort, resource sharing, 1.5°C alignment, and the abatement required. The NDC range is projected to put the country on a trajectory aligned with achieving net zero from all GHGs (excluding biogenic methane) by 2050. New Zealand continues to take the lead by undertaking an economy-wide absolute emissions reduction target.

Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)

The RMI considers its proposed targets to be fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances. Given its extreme vulnerability to climate change and its dependence on external support, the RMI believes its commitment is significant. The RMI emphasises that it emits less than 0.0005% of global GHGs, yet faces existential threats from climate change, making a safe future dependent on an effective multi-lateral response. Despite facing challenges in delivering its current NDC, the RMI strongly believes in setting out its maximum ambition, hoping to drive stronger efforts and inspire potential donors to provide support. The RMI's NDC confirms its previous indicative 2035 target – an absolute reduction in GHG emissions of at least 58% below 2010 levels by 2035, covering all major gases and sectors. This 2035 target represents a progression in ambition beyond the previous target of reducing emissions at least 45% below 2010 levels by 2030. The RMI states that this target is consistent with a trajectory to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the latest and represents its highest possible ambition in light of its national circumstances. In terms of fairness considerations, the RMI highlights its negligible contribution to global emissions while being disproportionately impacted by the adverse effects of climate change. The RMI's ambition is also framed by its commitment to the principle that its citizens should have the right to remain in their home islands. The NDC is presented as RMI's effort to reach the 1.5°C alignment and respond to the first Global Stocktake, particularly the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, urging all parties, especially major economies, to act with similar ambition. The RMI underscores that achieving this NDC depends strongly on support from its international partners. The fairness of the global response, particularly in providing adequate, predictable, and sufficient climate finance, is crucial for the RMI to meet its ambitious targets and address the climate crisis it has barely contributed to.

Singapore

Singapore considers its NDC to be fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances. Their national circumstances present significant challenges for decarbonisation as a small, low-lying island state with one of the highest population densities, making large-scale solar deployment difficult. Singapore’s second NDC targets a further reduction in emissions from around 60 MtCO2e in 2030 to between 45 to 50 MtCO2e in 2035. Achieving this is described as a challenge due to resource scarcity and limited alternative energy options, requiring more stringent regulations and investments in low-carbon technologies. Given its limited domestic abatement potential, Singapore aims to leverage its strengths in international co-operation to catalyse global decarbonisation. Singapore’s second NDC is a progression beyond their first NDC and is an economy-wide absolute GHG emissions reduction target. Singapore aims to support the collective effort to reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible.